Trades for 08/12/2009 FOMC DAY

Hello Traders,

Today was a blow out for me -28Ticks ($350) pretty much giving back all of yesterday's decent gains. There isn't much to say about this mess today. I couldn't get on the right side of the market until 2pm when I got a decent short entry. Of course I got out too early and ended up getting sucked into another short which was a stop out. I should have been long at that point. But again, blew an entry. The book was so light at points, and the action so whippy I got headfaked into losing money all day.

I'm not even going to talk about the trades because I didn't have a decent winner until 3pm. A winner I should have let run for 4 points! You can see the entries on the chart. Go ahead check them out, you will be asking yourself "What the hell was he thinking??". I'm obviously in a bad mood. I made mistakes left and right today. Its tough to trade these FOMC days, they are best left to the pros, And by pros I mean those with 25+ years of experience!

Overall, I'm not feeling too bad about the losses, its not like I blew up the whole week. Now that I think about it, this is the first losing day I have had since I started the blog. So I'll come back tomorrow with a fresh outlook and a few lessons learned. Odds are about 100% I won't trade the next FOMC meeting! Thanks for reading guys. Congrats If you made $$ Today. See you all in the morning

-Nate

Trades for 08/11/2009

Hello Traders,

Hope you did well today, it was a pretty easy day. The market threw some fakes toward the end of the day but I had wrapped it up by 2:30. All the trades I took today were posted live on my twitter account @infected1172. Lets talk about them real quick

First Trade Short 998.50
Pretty straightforward here. market was in a downtrend, I just needed price to break the 999 support level and I was in. The next two candles were whippy but we finally broke down and I took profits at +4 and +8 ticks.

Trade Two Long 991
I was kinda salty I missed the rest of the move down, but there are always more opportunities to make money. I knew 90 would be support so I just had to wait for the indicators to turn up. The indicators were already showing a slight divergence, making higher highs, I drew white lines to show this. We got a good pop but not what I was expecting and I captured a point on both contracts. I said on my twitter account that I would re-enter again If I got another chance. That's exactly what I did. Nothing wrong with taking profits when you have them. +4 and +4

Trade Three Long 991.75
The bond auction went really well, so I entered a long position. The entry was sub par, I'll admit. I was using the 310Tick chart when I should have been looking at the 1151Tick. I placed the stop at the day's low though and sat on it. I tweeted that 994 was my target and I took profits at +4 and +10 ticks.

So that's It. Three Trades and 34 Ticks ($425 before commissions). I quit a little early but you would too if you did this for a living. My friend Chris at http://10k10weeks.blogspot.com/ was done at 10:30!

Tomorrow is going to be a decent day for trading. A lot of people are worried that bonds will lose their bid no matter what the fed says. How this will effect the market is anyone's guess. Trade your plan and you should be fine. and as always, if you like what you read, please click on the sponsors. Have a good night,

-Nate

Trades for 08/10/2009

Hello Traders,

If you traded today and made money, congrats. This was the lightest market I have seen this summer. I don't have actual volume stats to confirm that, but I know we didn't trade more than 1 million contracts until 3:45 EST. On a day like this you have to mix up your strategy. I switch to smaller time frame charts for entries and only use the bigger charts to get direction. The 1151Tick chart would barely fill half my monitor today! The chart posted above is a 310Tick. indicators are MACD, DoubleMA, ECO2, and VWAP. The shading shows standard deviations from the VWAP(volume weighted average price, you knew that though right?). You can get these indicators on Ninja Forums or over at http://blog.bigmiketrading.com/. I took one trade today for +5 and +6 for a total of +11ticks. Lets talk about it real quick.

Trade One, Long 1001.50:
I didn't get to the screen until 12 and completely missed the move down. This was because my rules say "Don't trade during NYSE lunch hour" (unless already in a trade). Most traders have the same rule, and especially on a light volume day like today, its a good idea to follow that rule.
VWAP was the crucial indicator today. When you see price getting more than +/- 2 standard deviations from the VWAP (for me) its a good idea to start looking for reversals. At 1:21 we where -2 standard deviations from VWAP, the MACD was showing bullish divergence, and Double Moving Average turned blue. I took the long at 1001.50. I traded 2 contracts because of the light volume and strong downtrend. The move lasted for a point and then got ambushed by the bears. I could have taken it off at break even, but I decided to through the pullback. The VWAP was in the cards, I was positive. In the end I turned out to be right and I took profits when we got back to the orange line. +5 +6 = +11

If you follow me on Twitter, you saw I was stalking a short into the close, but I never got a good set up. Time ran out and the bulls ran it higher. Conservative traders are done at 3:30 or 3 if they have profits, so I walked away from the table with a measly $137.50.

Some things to watch this week:
Wholesale Inventories are tomorrow. I expect it to be a nonevent and another slow day ahead of the Fed. Wednesday will have the FOMC rate decision, Federal Budget, and Crude Inventories. I expect the FOMC announcement to be a nonevent too, UNLESS they say they are buying back more treasuries. The announcement should sound like this though; "Rates will remain low, downside risks remain, blah blah blah", basically the same thing we have been hearing. Thursday we have Retail sales. This could be a blow out with gas a little higher and cash for clunkers in full swing, so be sharp. Friday will bring the CPI. I'm not an economist so I don't know what to expect, I do know that they will be watching Capacity Utilization closely because this number has broad implications for unemployment so be aware that its reported at 9:15am.

Unlike last week, which started off big and got slower, this week will start off slow and get bigger. Be sharp, and trade your plan. Good Luck

-Nate

Trades for 08/06/2009

Hello Traders,

the labor report came in a little better than expected this morning. I wasn't paying much attention, honestly. I didn't get to the screen until about 10 because I had a job interview, which was a flop! They sold off the market. someone must have told them that 6.3 million people are still sucking on the government teat. Tomorrow is a big day in the market. Bears might be able to get something going If jobs numbers suck. From what I am hearing people are worried that January and February numbers are going to be revised MUCH LOWER like 1million+ jobs lost. Either way, I will trade it with the trend which so far has been up...on to the trades for today

First trade Short 995.50:
This trade was a mistake that ended up working. The proper short was where I drew the white arrow on the chart and the break of the trendline I drew. I thought I saw something I didn't and took a short so far from resistance I almost got stopped for -4points. As you can see I got one point on two contracts for +8 ticks. risking 4 points to make 1 was bad. By the time we got back to my entry I just wanted out. If I picked the better (proper) entry I would have got 3 or 4 points. But "would have" doesn't count and the trade goes in the books at +8. Lesson learned BTW.

Next and Last Trade Long 991:
This one was off oversold conditions. A lot of buying came into the market at the 990 level and I just waited for the indicators to confirm. When they did I took the trade. The very next bar I got filled for +4 and +6 ticks. Traders using 3 contracts today could have stayed in for 3 or more points. I'll explain why I used two today in the next paragraph.

Today we traded in a range once we found value. I drew horizontal white lines on the chart to show this range. This kind of trading sucks in my opinion. You have to pick just the right points or you get chopped to death by the market makers. I traded two contracts instead of three today because I expected a slow and choppy day, and that's pretty much what we had. I would have taken more trades, especially because we had some great set-ups throughout the day, but I was watching my 4 year old daughter all day. You want a trading challenge? Try doing this while Dora The Explorer is on in the background! Not recommended for newbs... I prefer absolute silence, or sometimes NPR on the radio.

Today turned out ok. +18 ticks on two contracts. Ill take it, better than losing money right? As always, thanks for reading and please click the sponsors if you like what you see. If you want to know more about my indicators and charts visit Big Mikes Trading Blog http://blog.bigmiketrading.com/. Have a nice night everyone

-Nate

Trades for 08/05/2009

Hello Traders,



I was super busy this morning so no time for trading. However, I got back in plenty of time for the afternoon session where I banked 50 ticks ($650)! I posted the chart above and will comment on the trades later. In the meantime I want to give a big shout out to Big Mikes Trading Blog http://blog.bigmiketrading.com/ and the wonderful community of traders there! Especially Sharky, Wiz, Zeller, and Big Mike himself. These guys are the brains behind the indicators I use and if you want to learn to trade like them go visit the blog and sign up for the forums. I just talk trades!

First trade, Short 994.50:
I assumed a continuation on the downtrend would begin here. Especially because the top indicator got a nice divergence going. That wasn't the case but not a big deal. Contracts 1 and 2 were off for +4 and +6. The runner was stopped at break even.

Next trade, Long 996:
I could have gotten into this one a little earlier, maybe 995. but in the end I was happy with the entry. There was a big flush of buyers and the 993 area held up well, probably trapping some late shorts. Those who didn't switch their bias long missed a great move up to over 1000! I got contracts off at +4 +7 and +10.

Last trade, Long 998.75:
The top of the range here was 998.25 so if you were aggressive you could have gone long at 998.50. I waited til 998.75 because I didn't want to get trapped at the top of a range and have to wait through another pullback before we went higher. The order was triggered and I took profits at +4 +6 and +9. In the end I could have stuck with it, but the name of the game is accumulating profits and that's what I did today, going 3 for 3 for +50ticks.

Other news:
We are down in after-hours and some traders are thinking we have hit a short term top. I really don't think so. In my opinion, this market will go higher until something stops it.

Today's action in AIG might have been a good indicator of a short term top but who knows, really. Probably sell the news on Friday when they come out with earnings.

Tomorrow is the Initial Jobless Claims report. I expect that to set the tone for the day. If its in line with forecasts or above and the market goes lower that would be bearish in my book.

As always, thanks for reading the blog. Visit Big Mikes, Traders International and other links please. See you tomorrow on twitter

-Nate

Trades for 08/04/2009

Hello Traders,

Consumer spending is up while incomes fall, which makes no sense to me. But consumers make up 70% of the economy so it doesn't matter if they are broke as long as they keep spending! In other news, 5th consecutive gain in monthly home sales index and a pretty hefty one at that. I'm sure it has to do with it being summer time or whatever. This country is screwed unless we take our medicine and we all know that. You can get the regular bearish dribble on the other blogs. This blog is about Trades and I call them like I see them. follow me on Twitter, now...

Lets Talk Trades

Couple people starting noticing the blog, saying you can't trade live you just draw crappy MS paint arrows on your charts. Yes I do suck at MS paint, but no I can trade, I just don't do it EVERYDAY. Today I traded all day for a gain of +44ticks or eleven points using 3 contracts. I took a total of four trades. I turned the little entry arrows on Ninja so you can see. I'll talk about them real quick and why I liked them

First short at 997:
looked good because of the candle stick formation at 999. I don't know what that's called, and I really don't care because I know its bad. I circled it on the chart. Feel free to post in the comments if you know what its called. My stops are 3ticks above recent swing highs. I put them there so I don't get stopped out on some BullsS1t you know the market makers try to pull on you. I got the targets on contracts one and two and got stopped on the runner at BE.

Next short at 999.25:
Look at that, same formation on the candlesticks. Got one contract off at a point and what a didn't realize is that the blue line was SLOPING up and you don't want to bet against that usually. When its flat that's one thing but the market was clearly trending higher all day, so shorts for scalps only. Other two contracts were stopped out and this trade went for -8

The long at 998.50:
On twitter everyone was looking at the 998 level, and I had been looking for a Long entry since I blew out that short in the morning. I was upset at myself for missing the move up, but didn't want to chase. I had to wait for the pullback and I did. For this entry I just watched the price action and when I felt it was safe, waited for the indicators to turn up. The Market topped 998.50 and away it went. I got all contracts off in profit when things got congested around 1,000.

The last long 999.25:
You can see on my chart that I took the long at 999.25 expecting that to be the break out candle from the wedge. It wasn't, but the indicators kept me in the trade and the next candle was. Great breakout too. Took contracts off at +4 +6 and +9. I wanted to be flat at the close, sucks though because this thing popped hard. Blame the robots or Goldman Sachs or whatever. If you watch it everyday you know its manipulated. Just play by their rules and you'll be fine

I hope you guys did well today. Also, I hope everyone is enjoying the blog. if you like that you see follow me on twitter or click the sponsors, Thanks

Trades for 08/03/2009

Hello Traders,

They kept stabbing at the magic number today (1,000). Cash for clunkers is a big success so that pushed things higher I guess, I don't really know I just watch the charts. Financial entertainment TEE VEE kills me.

Lets get into some trades. First trade was on the break above 990, got a good run to 995 and stopped on the runner. Second trade was perfect shorted on the break below 997 and got almost another 5 points. Right before lunch we got a nice break above 995 and I caught a long for 2 points. Had to get out quick though because the indicators starting giving mixed signals. In the end, that early lunch trade ran pretty good, all the way back to 1k. They could barely get it over with the late push and the system signaled a short after hours. I don't trade pre or post market so didn't take that last one.

Notes on the blog:
You will have to excuse my sloppy charts, I need to make some improvements on the site and pictures still. I hope you guys follow along. Please visit the sponsors and Big Mikes Trading blog at http://blog.bigmiketrading.com/ . See you tomorrow

Nate