Thursday, September 3, 2009

Good Evening Traders,

Tonight's post will be brief because the Steelers game is on! Yesterday I said I wanted to short this level, 1005. Well, things didn't quite play out the way I thought they would. The 3:30pm Ram job compliments of 85 Broad St opened up some possibilities. Lets discuss them

First off, 985 is untested. And so is 975 below that. I strongly believe we are going to test those levels. Yesterday's chart is still very much in play. I said yesterday those price levels " could take the rest of this week or even the next..."

I want to break it down on a smaller time frame though. Tomorrow we will know the employment situation in America. I expect it to be in line with the consensus or a little better, -200k-ish. Everyone who studies the markets knows this number is highly flawed. They can tweak things like the birth/death model and make up whatever numbers they want. We all know its not the numbers that matter but the reaction to them. This is bigger then Fed day IMO.

On tonight's chart I kept the indicators nice and simple. An RSI, MACD, and some Bollinger bands. Take note of the divergence that formed on the RSI. There is now good separation on both the MACD and RSI with the prior crossing it's zero line. Also, note the strength of the histogram on MACD. Basically everything is pointing higher. I made a few marks on the chart where we could find resistance. There is a Fib level at 1009.25 to keep an eye on. Putting on a short there with a stop at 1012 seems like good risk reward to me. I will be watching the Globex session and pre-market tomorrow to see if price can get up to 1010. I honestly think this afternoon's squeeze was just buffering us for a nice 20 point decline tomorrow.

Steelers are looking sharp and I keep getting distracted! You can follow me on twitter. Please click on the ads if you like what you are reading. Have a good night everyone. Get some sleep its gonna be an early morning tomorrow.


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