Tuesday, October 19, 2010

10/19/2010 Market Notes For Tomorrow

Hello again traders,

I am going to jot down some thoughts for tomorrow before bed. First of all I expect it to be a slow day. we have no econ news and after a big move like today's the market tends to balance within a range. speaking of range we are near the bottom of the one that has been forming since the beginning of October.

Again the bears are out in force. On the financial entertainment TV (CNBC) talking their books. The bears have the whole mortgage putback/fraudclosure thing going for them and today's news concerning the NY Fed & others suing Bank of America adds some fuel to the flame. However the bulls have the possibility of $100 Billion a month of quantitative easing in their corner. Personally my bet is with the bulls! $100 billion a month is a lot of money! And we all know that somehow these banks will weasel themselves out of this mess. They managed to do it every time I don't see how this will be any different. Just play the end of the world card again and they can get whatever they want!

Now as I was saying... we are towards the bottom of the recent range and we should get a little churn in the upper 1150's and the 1160's. I would like to short the 1169-71 area on first touch and if price can get over 1176.00 it would be a major victory for buyers.

On the downside we don't have much more meat on the bone. I'd buy yesterday's RTH low if prices get that far but I doubt we'll get that test with practically no catalyst. It would be a great buying opportunity if we did though. The 20 day moving average should be near 1156 and swing traders will be placing bets.

Tomorrow is going to be about trading the extremes. I'll be watching earnings reports, the dollar (which had a big move last 2 days), and the VIX for clues. I am having a good week and I am looking to preserve profits. Good luck tomorrow everyone.


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